DEMAND FOR RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURED GOODS WEAKENED IN JULY, FALLING AT FASTEST RATE THIS YEAR, SIGNALLING SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
- Worldwide supply chain spare capacity rises, adding to thecalls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest ratessoon.
- Asian factory demand at its weakest since December 2023, partly because of a notabledecrease in purchasing by Chinese factories.
- Suppliers to North Americareport underutilized capacity, with Mexican manufacturers reportinglower input demand for the first time since October 2023.
- European market continues to struggle, with region'smanufacturing recession persisting.
CLARK,N.J.,Aug. 12,2024 /PRNewswire/ -- In July, the GEP Global SupplyChain Volatility Index— a leading indicator tracking demandconditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories andbacklogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses—signaled underutilized capacity at global suppliers for thefirst time since April, falling to a four-month low.
The greatest level of slack in supply chains was in Europe, which continues to grapple withrecession conditions in its manufacturing sector, especially inGermany. Asia growth also cooled as factory demand inthe region contracted to its weakest since December 2023. Underlying data revealed adecrease in purchasing activity by Chinese factories — the firsttime this has occurred in nine months. Japan's manufacturing sector was also a sourceof weakness.
Suppliers to North American companies reported slightlyunderutilized capacity during July, as was the case in June.Slowing purchasing activity was seen across all three countrieswithin the region, with Canadareporting the steepest contraction. Notably, Mexican factories,which have been a driver of growth in the region this year,reported lower input demand for the first time since October 2023.
"In July, purchasing activity by global manufacturers declined,indicating that economic growth is slowing, adding to the calls forthe Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner rather thanlater," explained Mike Jette, vicepresident, consulting, GEP. "This is not alarming data. The world'ssupply chains continue to operate efficiently, with no sign ofstockpiling, shortages, or price pressures. But to head off anymaterial slowdown in the second half of the year, manufacturers doneed demand to increase."
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chaincapacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the morestretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chaincapacity is being underutilized.The furtherbelow 0, the more underutilizedsupply chainsare.
JULY 2024 KEY FINDINGS
- DEMAND: Having recovered in the first half of the year,global factory purchasing activity fell by the greatest marginsince the end of 2023 in July, indicating renewed weakness in theworld economy. Central to this decline was a fresh slowdown inAsia, driven by China and Japan. Europe's manufacturing recession persisted,especially in Germany, wherefactory purchasing contracted sharply.
- INVENTORIES: The inventory cycle has stabilized. Whilereports from global businesses of safety stockpiling due to priceor supply concerns were below typical levels, the underlyingindicator has generally trended in line with its long-term averageso far this year.
- MATERIAL SHORTAGES: Reports of item shortages fellslightly in July, down to their lowest level since January,signaling high stock levels at vendors of commodities and criticalraw materials.
- LABOR SHORTAGES: The supply of labor is not aninhibiting factor for global manufacturers, as reports of backlogsdue to insufficient staffing capacity are at typical levels.
- TRANSPORTATION: Although supply chain activity dipped inJuly, global transportation costs are at the highest in 21 months,largely driven by Asia.
REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY
- NORTH AMERICA: Indexunchanged at -0.11, indicating slightly underutilized capacityacross the region's suppliers. Manufacturers in the U.S.,Mexico and Canada all reported a softening of demand inJuly.
- EUROPE: Index fellsharply to a three-month low of -0.49, down from -0.13.Europe's manufacturing sectorrecession is persisting, with major economies, such as Germany, at the heart of the decline.
- U.K.: Index dropped to 0.11, from 0.49 in June, butstill signaling capacity pressures at the U.K.'s suppliers.
- ASIA: Index slippedfrom June's 16-month high of 0.35 to 0.07, its lowest since April.Demand for inputs at Asian factories was at its weakest this year,principally because of a softening in China and Japan.
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription.Please contact economics@spglobal.com.
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain VolatilityIndex will be 8 a.m. ET, September 11, 2024.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Indexis produced byS&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global'sPMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries,totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weightedsum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackersand PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&PGlobal. For more information about the methodology, click here.
About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chainsolutions that help global enterprises become more agile andresilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gaincompetitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholdervalue. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domainexpertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™,GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliverprocurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale,power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world's bestcompanies, including more than 550 Fortune 500 and Global 2000industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic,financial and operational goals. A leader in multiple Gartner MagicQuadrants, GEP's cloud-native software and digital businessplatforms consistently win awards and recognition from industryanalysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner,Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters. GEP is also regularlyranked a top procurement and supply chain consulting and strategyfirm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, EverestGroup, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered inClark, New Jersey, GEP has officesand operations centers across Europe, Asia,Africa and the Americas. To learnmore, visitwww.gep.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essentialintelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individualswith the right data, expertise and connected technology so thatthey can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customersassess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energytransition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solvechallenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widelysought after by many of the world's leading organizations toprovide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflowsolutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets.With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leadingorganizations plan for tomorrow, today.
MediaContacts | ||
Derek Creevey | Joe Hayes | Email:joe.hayes@spglobal.com |
GEP | PrincipalEconomist | |
Phone: +1732-382-6565 | S&P Global MarketIntelligence | |
Email:derek.creevey@gep.com | Phone:+44-1344-328-099 |
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